By PETER AGOH
Delta state is very complex. The complexity of the state is most evident in the political arena, where its composite ethnic groupings struggle to out-wit  for political dominance. Politics in Delta state is as intriguing as the game of chess. And things are not always what they seem.
In 2007, as the former governor of the state, Chief James Ibori was preparing to exit the Government House, the state was in a political frenzy as governorship aspirants jostled for the ticket of the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) in the state.
While the likes of Godwill Obielum, Ifeanyi Okowa and Cairo Ojuogboh dominated the governorship discourse, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan who  eventually emerged as the  governorship candidate was lurking in the shadows; only to emerge at the 11th hour.
In the run-up to the 2015 general election, the question that agitates the mind of analysts is whether the 2011 scenario is going to repeat itself in the Delta PDP.
Delta North Agitation
Since the creation of Delta State in 1991, the state has not been governed by somebody from the Anioma nation that make up Delta North. Delta south has produced Olorugun Felix Ibru  in the botched third republic and Chief James Ibori while Delta south produced Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan.
Consequently, the people of Delta North have being agitating for an opportunity to govern the state.  In the run-up to the 2015 governorship poll in the state, most of the key actors in the PDP believe that the governorship should go to the Anioma nation.
Although there are a few candidates from Delta central and south, who have collected nomination forms for the guber contest in the PDP, the race is dominated by aspirants from Delta north, a suggestion that the ticket may have been tacitly ceded to Delta north.
Agitation Favours Ndokwa
Delta north comprises three sub-ethnic groupings: Aniocha-Oshimili, Ika and Ndokwa. Among the three sub-ethic units, the odds appears to favour Ndokwa.
Recently Urhobo leaders in the state said they would support power shift to Delta North if the governor would come from Ndokwa. That sentiments coming Urhobo nation, a dominat ethnic group in the state is boost to the Ndokwa  pepple.
The Ndokwa is considered a resource-partner to the revenue base of Delta state, a factor which the Urhobo, Isoko and Ijaw have punted as a requisite characteristic for the heritage of Delta state. Ndokwa accounts for a chunk of oil and Gas production in the country and this is counted as privilege to the Delta heritage, of being the resource-base of Nigeria.
It will therefore not be a surprise if a candidate of Ndokwa extraction would emerge a compromise candidate in the quest for power shift to Delta North.
For Mr Charles Emetulu, one of the PDP governorship hopeful, the Urhobos preference for an Ndokwa candidate is a fillip to his governorship project.
Emetulu, a former Commissioner for Power and Energy in the state hails from  from Abbi, in Ndokwa West Local government area of Delta state.
For Delta north to actualize its agitation to govern Delta state in 2015, other ethnic groupings in the state must be in agreement. The Urhobos, a dominant ethnic are said to have tacitly agreed to support a candidate of Ndokwa origin and the reasons for this are germane. The Urhobos, both by marriage and geographical proximity have proclivity for the Ndokwa and therefore, comfortable with ceding political power to the Ndokwa, a permutation that favours Emetulu.
For the Urhobos, Ndokwa is considered a resource-partner to the revenue base of Delta state, a factor which the Urhobo, Isoko and Ijaw have punted as a requisite characteristic for the heritage of Delta state. Ndokwa, where Emetulu comes from accounts for a chunk of oil and Gas production in the country and this is counted as privilege to the Delta heritage, of being the resource-base of Nigeria. In essence, the Urhobos are only willing to concede power to a person from an area boasting resource(s) extraction as a compensation for their contribution to the revenue –base of the state. Hence, in the estimation of political actors from Delta south and Delta north, Emetulu is seen as that compromise candidate in the quest for power shift to Delta North.
Beside these factors, Emetulu is the only member of Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan-led state executive council that is contesting in 2015 to govern Delta state and in the spirit of continuity will be the most viable candidate to carry on with Uduaghan’s Delta Beyond Oil Project. Emetulu also comes with no baggage; a factor that distinguishes him from all other contenders to the Governorship of Delta state in 2015.

Delta 2015: is Emetulu the dark horse?