Thursday, 14 August 2014

APC’s saving grace

It is no longer news that Rauf Adesoji Aregbesola, who stood for reelection contest last week, has been returned for another four years as the Governor of Osun State. We are also well aware of the fact that the election was keenly contested. It  generated more than a passing interest. But the loud interest the election generated was for good reasons. The All Progressives Congress (APC), the party of the governor, was fighting the battle of its life. The party had, a few weeks earlier, lost Ekiti, one of its catchment states, to the rival Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The development was earth-shaking. The APC felt the wound. It heaved sighs of woe. It was as if all was lost. The party  was almost an object of derision. It looked castrated, even forlorn, in the process.
APC’s lamentation was understandable. The party had constructed a myth around itself. The South West, where the loss took place, is its stronghold. It erected a seemingly impregnable fortress around itself in this zone. The assumption was that the party could be defeated anywhere but in the south west. A loss in its major area of strength was therefore most disturbing. The development left many with the impression that the APC was a paper tiger; that it had no real followership. This was especially in the light of the fact that the governors whose electoral strengths were being tested came in through the courts. Their reelection bid was the real litmus test that they were facing.
With the loss of Ekiti as well, many began to berate Bola Tinubu, one of the national leaders of the APC who, as the arrowhead of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), fought spiritedly for the emergence of the governors whose real electoral worth was being put to test. The loss of Ekiti suggested to many that Tinubu’s political empire was collapsing. The loss of an additional state by APC in quick succession was therefore unimaginable. It would be devastating for the party. It would leave Tinubu in the cold. This made the APC jittery. It wanted to avoid the proverbial case of once beaten, twice shy.
It was in this background of fear and uncertainty that the APC set out to fight the Osun election. The party was already on edge. Therefore, every move from the Federal Government controlled by the PDP appeared suspicious to it. It sensed ulterior motive and read outlandish meaning into it.
When therefore the federal government introduced the military as part of the security arrangement for the elections, the APC cried foul. It began to imagine that The Presidency was at it again. The APC had alleged that military presence in Ekiti did not help the cause of the party in Governor Fayemi’s reelection bid. They thought that the military intimidated APC supporters into voting for PDP.
However, those of us who looked beyond partisanship in this matter saw things differently. I argued and continue to argue that military presence is not targeted at any party, person or group of persons. The military are there to provide security for one and all. Their job is to ensure that people conduct themselves responsibly before, during and even after elections.
Surprisingly, military presence at elections suddenly became an issue because of the electoral accident in Ekiti. But I have always reminded those interested in the matter that it is not new to elections in Nigeria. Imo, my home State, was militarized during the 2011 gubernatorial elections. I was a witness to it. The people of the state did not complain of intimidation or harassment. And that was in an election in which the incumbent lost. The same was true of Edo, Ondo and Anambra elections. Significantly, the PDP, the ruling party,  which is being accused of using the military to secure advantage for itself lost election in the aforementioned states. That should have allayed the fears of those who were crying wolf in Ekiti and Osun states.
Strangely, however, it did not. It was so bad that the outcry over militarization almost dwarfed what should have been the focus of the campaigns. Governor Aregbesola and his main challenger, Iyiola Omisore of the PDP, were supposed to be the issue. Attention was supposed to be focused on who they are. As a serving governor, Aregbesola’s performance in office was supposed to speak for him. Omisore’s records in the public domain were also supposed to be brought into play. This mattered more to a few like me. Since I knew Aregbe’s record of achievements well enough, I was confident that he would be reelected. Besides, the governor did not lack that which many said was largely responsible for the defeat of Fayemi- alienation from the people. A Governor Aregbesola who walks the streets of Osun through his government’s Walk for Life initiative cannot be an alien to the people. Happily, we have seen that, in spite of the hue and cry over militarization and allegations bordering on plot to rig, what matters for an incumbent is performance in office and relationship with the people. Ogbeni had both. And he carried the day.
The way it is, Aregbesola has turned out to be APC’s saving grace. He has redeemed the image of the party. He has buoyed up its sagging ego. Tinubu and Governor Babatunde Raji Fashola of Lagos State were captured by the lenses this Sunday while hugging each other jubilantly over Aregbe’s victory. That was the story. That reflected the mood of the party at very high levels. The duo and their allies would have been in mourning mood had Argebe lost. The APC would have been psychologically defeated. And that would have, unfortunately, affected its performance negatively in the 2015 elections.
But now, the party is picking up again after its disastrous outing in Ekiti. With the redemption song from Governor Aregbesola, the APC can rise again to the challenge that lies ahead. Part of this challenge does not consist in chasing shadows as the APC is wont to do sometimes. We know that it has become almost customary in Nigeria for political parties and their candidates to resort to court action whenever they lose at the polls. But we also know that it is not profitable in all cases. The APC went to court to challenge the outcome of Anambra governorship election. It has gone to court again to challenge Fayose’s emergence as governor in Ekiti.  These are not helpful cases. But it is reassuring that Aregbesola has demonstrated that a good candidate has good chances of winning at the polls. The man worked hard for his reelection and he has arrived the Promised Land. The APC should find some succour in this. In fact, it should recommend the Ogbeni manual, whatever it may be, to other party faithful who may be running as APC candidates, especially at the gubernatorial level. Certainly, the Ogbeni formula works.
However, those who wish the  APC well should advise it to tone down on propaganda. No discerning observer of the polity will be taken in by such antics. Aregbesola did not win reelection on the strength of propaganda. If he were not a good candidate, propaganda would have failed the party.
Let us not forget that we are told that too much of everything is bad. It is off-putting and may have a counter-productive effect. That was the kind of effect the recent threat of the National Chairman of the APC, Chief  John Odigie-Oyegun, had on decent minds. The man was quoted as saying that his party would form a parallel government if the PDP rigs the 2015 elections. What Odigie-Oyegun has simply said is that if his party does not emerge victorious at the polls, then we should consider the election rigged. And then anarchy will be let loose through his weird suggestion.
Odigie-Oyegun’s outburst is, to say the least, irresponsible. The man spoke like an ignorant fellow. He spoke as someone who does not know the implication of his statement. But I know that he knows. He was once a governor. He therefore knows what it means to have two governments in any setting. He must have disappointed those who made it possible for him to emerge as chairman. I am sure that Odigie- Oyegun does not fit into the national chairman of their dream.The Odigie-Oyeguns of APC should make it possible for the party to relate to Nigerians as a people that harbour  some thinking faculty.
It is, indeed, disappointing that a man of Odigie-Oyegun’s standing will be involved in such a brazen call for anarchy. How does a parallel government work in Odigie-Oyegun’s Nigeria? Does he think that the country has become the banana republic of his imagination? I think that clear-headed members of APC should call the likes of Odigie-Oyegun to order. They are giving the party a bad name.

APC’s saving grace

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