For those who understand the nature of politics in Nigeria, the picture of 2015 general elections is getting clearer by the day. As the clock ticks toward the general election, what seemed like a cloudy political atmosphere is gradually thinning out and politicians are getting set for the game they know best. Many would agree that the poll is going to have all the trappings of general elections in the country and even more.
According to the guidelines of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), parties’ primaries must be conducted between October 2 and December 11, 2014, while December 18 through 25th  are the final days for submission of presidential and National Assembly nomination forms to INEC.
From the activities lined up ahead of the election so far, the two major parties that would dominate the political landscape are the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC). Analysts believe that even though other parties still enjoy support from pockets of voters, the major struggle for power in Nigeria would be between the PDP and the APC.
Amid the frenzy of political activities, intrigues and horse-trading ahead of the election, one contest that will interest many is the presidential race. Already, there are all manners of permutations on which party will be the possible winner of the presidential race. But at the moment, what is of interest to political  observers is the question of  who the major parties would field in the race to Aso Rock.
Many would say that for the APC, the race is still open to all those aspiring to occupy the plum position as there is no gainsaying that the major opposition party is still tinkering with whom to fly its flag in the presidential race.
But the situation appears different in the PDP which could be said to have made up its mind to adopt President Jonathan as its sole candidate in 2015. Even though the party has not formally presented him as its sole candidate for the election, the negotiations among critical segments of the party favour the adoption of Jonathan as its flag bearer in the coming election. The development comes even as the PDP will on December 6, 2014 hold a primary poll to elect its candidate for the February 14, 2014 presidential election.
Ahead of the PDP primaries, President Jonathan has enjoyed a gale of endorsements of his candidacy by members of his party.
The PDP Board of Trustees headed by Chief Tony Aneni has already adopted the President as the sole candidate of the party in 2015.
Also, on Wednesday night, President Jonathan was endorsed by governors on the platform of the PDP as its sole candidate for the 2015 poll.
The announcement was made by the Chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum, Chief Godswill Akpabio, after a meeting in Abuja.
The Akwa Ibom State helmsman, who addressed journalists along with other governors, said that the meeting also urged party faithful nationwide to support the decision to enable Jonathan become the only presidential aspirant and candidate of the party.
Part of the communique read out by Akpabio said:
“The Forum hereby endorses Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GCFR), President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria for a second term in office and resolved to support his bid for re-election come 2015
“The Forum urges all PDP faithful to support this gesture which should enable the President to become the sole Presidential candidate of the PDP come 2015”.
The PDP National Working Committee (NWC) has already declared that priority will be given to the ambition of the President, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan in the race. National Secretary of the party, Prof. Wale Oladipo, made the disclosure recently while addressing a group seeking a fresh mandate for the president, House-to-House Campaign Organisation for Democracy in Abuja.
The party’s national scribe noted that since the country’s presidential system of government was modeled after the political system in the United States, a sitting president had a right of first refusal.
Oladipo declared that for stability of the nation’s democracy, the incumbent president must be re-elected for a fresh term of four years, assuring PDP faithful that the national leadership of the party would do the needful.
His words: “As far as we are concerned and majority of Nigerians are concerned, he (Jonathan) is doing a marvelous job for this country. Our party started the transformation of this country. This transformation must be taken to a logical conclusion, but the party’s national working committee is ready to ensure a level-playing field for all aspirants.
“We know what President Jonathan represents in the stability of this nation. Our convention will come at the appropriate time, because no single individual decides for PDP as we have in the main opposition party.
“We shall follow due process and do the needful. Our party must win the 2015 presidential election; it is in the interest of this country and the black race.”
So, as the PDP fine-tunes its strategies ahead of the election, many believe that what President Jonathan is enjoying is the right of first refusal as practiced by the Democrats in the United States of America which is the model that Nigeria’s democracy is fashioned after. The political strategy was initiated by the Democrats in the 70s to forestall split among members during the primaries. The intention was to ensure that the Democrats contested elections as one united family.
The right of first refusal allows a serving president and governors the opportunity to become the candidates of their party during elections without undergoing the rigours of primaries.
So, as activities toward 2015 general elections gather momentum, if the proponents of the idea are able to push it through, President Jonathan and the governors of Kwara, Gombe, Kogi and Bayelsa States would not face any party primaries because all they would need to do is to indicate their interest to seek a second term in office.
Critical observers argue that the whole idea of the right of first refusal being offered President Jonathan is meant to solidify the cohesion in the party and reduce what many see as ‘unnecessary distraction’ from politicians.
Signs from power brokers in the ruling party suggest that there would be no presidential primary election in 2015 to choose the candidate for the PDP but only an affirmation by the party’s congress.
However, the offer is subject to Jonathan accepting to contest for the office of the president in the 2015 general elections. The same would be applicable to governors elected on the platform of the party seeking a second term in office. Those conversant with the attitude of Nigerian politicians are in agreement that both President Jonathan and the affected governors would not turn down such offer given them on a platter of gold.
Analysts argue that considering the threat posed by its major rival, the APC, strategists in the PDP believe that there is no need to waste time and funds in organising presidential or governorship primaries for a serving president and the governors. In the estimation of many, the intention of the proponents of the rights of first refusal by the PDP is to further deepen the nation’s democracy by reducing rancour within the ruling party during the elections. The calculation is that the strategy which is popular among Democrats in the United States is to allow the president and major actors in the party to concentrate on how to win the race without any distraction.
Political observers argue that considering the threat posed by the APC, the PDP is adopting the right of first refusal to ensure unity within its fold ahead and during the elections.
But what is surprising in all of this is that the President is yet to declare for re-election even though his body language is clear that he would soon join the fray. Speaking at PDP’s South West sensitization rally in Lagos on Saturday, Jonathan described his endorsement as PDP’s sole presidential aspirant by the party’s major organs as giving him the right of first refusal to the ticket. He said he now has the right to accept or refuse PDP’s presidential ticket before it can be declared open for contest. At the periphery, President Jonathan’s statement gave the impression that he was yet to make up his mind on whether or not he will run. However, many are in agreement that Jonathan betrayed his ambition for re-election when he said that adopting him and giving him the right of first refusal is the practice in advanced democracies.
The question then is –will the strategy help the PDP in the coming elections. There are those who argue that even though democracy encourages equal and free participation of candidates, the right of first refusal being adopted by the PDP is a game changer because of its inherent advantages. One is that while other parties would still be struggling to come up with a candidate for the election, the PDP would already be ahead and perfecting other strategies for the poll.
Analysts also argue that the offer to Jonathan would save the party enormous resources usually spent during party primaries in the country. In the estimation of many, spending so much during elections leads to corruption as such candidates try to recoup their ‘investments’ when they get into office.
A school of thought believes that the strategy will also save the nation from the crisis and tension associated with presidential primaries of PDP which has been in power since 1999.
Another argument in support of the PDP move is that in the event of President Jonathan winning a second term, there would not be the problem of transition in power. In the estimation of proponents of this argument, the President would merely continue with his programmes which could have been changed if a new person had emerged. Not a few commend the PDP for adopting the strategy in the race to the 2015 general elections as that would reduce the tension in the polity.
Many are anxiously waiting to witness the outcome of the predictably tough election which is fast approaching. For many, with the timetable of the primaries of the various parties out already, the long-awaited general elections are here.
By the Electoral Act 2010, Section 31 (1): “Every political party shall not later than 60 days before the date appointed for the general elections under the provisions of this Act, submit to the Commission in the prescribed forms, a list of the candidates the party proposes to sponsor at the elections.”
While the electoral guidelines issued by the INEC provides that the sale of presidential forms shall take place between November 4 and 11, the campaigns would kick off on November 30.

2015:Jonathan and PDP’s right of first refusal